Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
